双语 | 中国将成为2020年唯一实现同比正增长的主要经济体

2020-08-05 13:52:44 北京周报

China's V-shaped economic recovery continued for a fourth consecutive month in June, led by strong domestic demand. If the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains under control, China can remain the world's best consumer story.

由于国内需求强劲,截至6月份,中国经济的V型复苏已经持续了四个月。如果新冠疫情可以一直得到有效控制,则中国可以一直保持全球最强劲的消费势头。

The recovery of sales of autos and homes reflects that middle-class and wealthy consumers have both sufficient money and enough confidence in the future to spend it. And it was not only big-ticket items that bounced back. Online sales of goods rose 25 percent year on year in June. During the first six months of the year, online sales accounted for one quarter of total retail sales.

汽车和房产销售量的复苏表明,中国中等收入群体和富裕消费者不但手中资金充足,而且对未来充满信心敢于消费。除高档商品销售量反弹外,6月份,线上销售同比增长25%,今年上半年,线上销售占零售总额的25%。

6月16日,市民在长春市儿童公园内赏花。(新华社记者 王全超 摄)

It is significant that this healthy economic recovery has come without a dramatic stimulus. Credit growth, for example, has accelerated only modestly. Augmented total outstanding social finance, the broadest metric for credit growth, was up 12.9 percent year on year by the end of June, compared to an 11.5-percent growth rate during the same period in 2019, far from the 31-percent growth rate during the same period in 2009, when China implemented a massive stimulus in response to the global financial crisis. This highlights the strength of an organic recovery, and leaves the government with plenty of dry powder if the recovery were to falter.

值得一提的是,中国是在没有采取大规模刺激政策的情况下实现了经济的健康复苏。比如,信贷并未出现急剧增长。从社会融资规模存量这一最全面的信贷增长衡量标准看,截至6月底,中国的社会融资规模存量同比增长12.9%,2019年同期的增长率为11.5%,远低于2009年同期31%的增长率,当时为了应对全球金融危机,中国实施了大规模的经济刺激政策。这充分显示了目前中国经济自然复苏的强劲力量,即使出现复苏乏力,政府也拥有足够的政策空间来应对。

Unemployment remains a concern, but the absence of social unrest and the continuing rebound in consumer spending suggest that the government's support for workers and businesses has provided a cushion for many who lost their jobs, laying the foundation for an economic recovery. But if services companies in hospitality, entertainment and travel take a long time to return to normal levels of business due to COVID-19 fears, unemployment (or underemployment) among migrant workers will persist, exacerbating income inequality.

失业问题仍需关注,但中国并没有出现社会动荡,消费支出的持续反弹说明政府向员工和企业提供的支持已经缓解了失业人群的困境,为中国经济的复苏奠定了基础。但是如果酒店餐饮服务业、娱乐业和旅游业因疫情的负面影响长期无法恢复到正常营业水平,农民工群体的失业或不充分就业问题将持续存在,进一步加剧收入差距。

In a June update to its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that China will be the only major economy to grow on a year-on-year basis in 2020, and the fund forecasts 8.2-percent year-on-year GDP growth for China next year. In my view, the IMF's China forecast growth rate for next year is too high, but I agree with the overall trend.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)在最新一期《世界经济展望》中预测中国将成为2020年唯一一个实现同比正增长的主要经济体,并预测2021年中国GDP同比增长将达到8.2%。我个人认为,IMF高估了明年中国经济的增长率,但是总的增长趋势是对的。

Whether the V-shaped economic recovery described here continues depends primarily on the Chinese Government's ability to continue keeping the coronavirus under control. At this point, there are reasons to be optimistic.

中国是否能够维持本文提到的V型经济复苏最主要的还是看中国政府是否有能力继续有效控制疫情。对于这一点,我们有足够的理由表示乐观。

Because China is a domestic-demand driven economy, there is a low risk that a possible COVID-19-driven global recession, or the ongoing downward spiral in U.S.-China relations might derail the recovery. Last year, domestic consumption accounted for almost 60 percent of GDP growth. So while a collapse in demand for Chinese exports would be a drag on the recovery, it would likely be a modest drag.

中国是内需推动型经济体,疫情可能引发的全球经济衰退或中美关系不断恶化都不大可能干扰中国经济的复苏。去年,中国的国内消费几乎占GDP增长的60%。虽然出口需求大幅下跌会阻碍中国经济的复苏,但是这种不利影响是非常有限的。

翻译:潘小乔

责任编辑:闫威

设计排版:卢一凡

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