文章转自半导体设备与材料，作者：杨绍辉等
一、会议要点：
1、DUV与EUV的相互替代的关系：一般来说，客户选择的EUV层越多，深紫外线层就越少。所以如果这仅仅是一个技术的转变，可能会看到深紫外和EUV的竞争，但是如果考虑存储和逻辑都有产能扩张，那么您可以看到两类光刻工艺的应用都会上升。
2、7nm/5nm等先进制程的技术节点是大周期、长周期性质，ASML客户的创新和技术路线图创新仍在继续，逻辑、存储都是这样，并且都与EUV相关，尤其是对于DRAM以及7/5nm扩展。
3、存储领域：由于数据中心的健康需求以及对消费电子产品需求增长的期望，客户继续表示他们看到了复苏的迹象。随着存储厂利用率水平的不断提高，今年下半年的需求有望增加。ASML的订单情况同样支持这一结论：在过去的三个季度里，存储在新订单中的占比不断增加。
4、产品结构及毛利率变动：与第二季度相比，我们预计第三季度在这种紫外光中的浸入式系统更少。从第三季度到第四季度，毛利率达到50%是可以实现的，主要驱动因素也是浸入式系统，预计ASML产品结构中会有更多的浸入式系统。
5、EUV产品类别的变化预期（Cs与Ds）：二季度3台EUV新订单是包括3400C和3600D机台。ASML认为2021年上半年可能会更倾向于Cs，但之后会转化为Ds，所以2021年下半年会看到Ds。公司计划今年发布有且唯一一个3600D，而2021年将是D版本升级的一年。
6、中国大陆地区的Fab厂基本上都是ASML的客户，包括Logic，NAND和DRAM客户。但传统DRAM客户正在推动下半年的需求，下半年的工作重点将放在DRAM客户。
7、目前EUV仅用于DRAM单层节点，但到2022-2023年，多层DRAM工艺上应用EUV的发展速度将会加快。ASML可以在DRAM中建立多达五层的模型，但这不在ASML明年将使用EUV的节点中。2021年大部分出货的EUV将用于Logic。
8、ASML在二季度交付了9台EUV系统，其中4台未经过工厂验收测试，这意味着5台系统在发货时就已确认收入。对于第一季度发货的2个系统，在发货前未进行工厂验收测试的情况下，我们能够完成客户现场验收测试并确认本季度的收入，从而使第二季度的EUV收入系统总数达到7个。
二、公司基本情况介绍
尽管受疫情影响，第二季度仍表现出色，各方面相较第一季度都有提高。EUV系统服务占据很大份额，并有望在下半年实现盈亏平衡；逻辑需求持续高水平，存储领域逐渐复苏；基础安装业务和服务业务都将继续扩大，完成第一台NXT:1470交付工作。预计2020年的销售额和盈利能力将实现两位数的增长，并将在第四季度开始执行股票回购。
公司概况：ASML第二季度净销售额为33亿欧元。考虑到疫情环境中的风险，我们的表现相当出色，这意味着第二季度强劲增长超过35%。二季度盈利能力提高。在这个充满挑战的宏观经济环境中，我们看到逻辑和存储器市场都有增长，这反映出我们的客户不断创新并继续投资于未来的技术节点。
随着大量的在家工作和远程学习持续进行，例如数据中心和通信基础设施等细分市场继续保持强劲。由于新冠肺炎给经济造成的影响，消费者相关的电子产品（例如智能手机）的需求可能会在短期内承受压力。我们的客户表示他们看到终端市场的持续发力，因此需要先进的节点，这些反映在我们稳定的需求上。
EUV系统：我们在第二季度交付了9台EUV系统，并确认了7台系统的收入。考虑到第二季度我们没有确认收入的2个系统带来的额外收入约2.6亿欧元，这将使得二季度达到约36亿欧元的收入和约50%的增长。
与第一季度类似，某些EUV系统在第二季度未经工厂验收测试的情况下也加快了发货速度。我们希望在下半年的现场验收中确认这些系统的收入。我们在本季度交付了9台EUV系统，其中4台未经过工厂验收测试，这意味着5台系统在发货时就已确认收入。对于第一季度发货的2个系统，但在发货前未进行工厂验收测试的情况下，我们能够完成客户现场验收测试并确认本季度的收入，从而使第二季度的EUV收入系统总数达到7个。
该技术现已进入大批量生产领域，并且从第二季度EUV在我们的销售中占据很大份额上可以证实，这是我们核心业务活动不可或缺的一部分。像上个季度所讨论的，我们已经成功实现了对模块化容器的改进，并且该容器旨在提供更高的可用性。本季度出货9台，我们在上半年已发货13台系统，并且由于与疫情相关的运输和支持风险现在有所降低，我们计划恢复正常的认证程序，包括工厂验收测试，这意味着我们预计第三季度所有系统的出货收入都会得到确认。
我们计划在第三季度减少我们的周期时间，使其重回正轨。我对我们每季度都能生产并运输两位数的EUV系统这一能力感到满意。因此，我们全年的目标仍是今年35个系统，收入45亿欧元。
在EUV的利润率方面，经过十多年对EUV的投资，我们在提高系统和服务的盈利能力方面都进展顺利。预计今年下半年EUV服务利润率将实现盈亏平衡，EUV系统的毛利率有望达到或超过今年40%的目标。我们仍计划明年容纳45到50个系统。通过在今年年底前将我们工厂的周期时间缩短到20周左右，这就依然在在我们现有的工厂占地范围内。目前有54个系统的在手订单，其中28个占据了过半的容纳量的系统订单将在2021年交付，我们预计今年下半年订单将继续以支持2021年的需求。
可以理解的是，客户目前正在思考疫情将如何影响全球经济。进入今年下半年，我们也将更好的评估对明年的技术升级计划的最终影响。
逻辑系统：逻辑系统的净销售额再次达到24亿欧元，占销售额的62%，其余38%来自存储器。尽管Logic对设备的需求仍然非常强大，但在过去3个季度中，存储在系统销售额中所占的比例一直在增长。
客户继续增加7纳米和5纳米的先进技术节点。为了支持数字基础设施的建设，推动终端市场应用，如5G、AI和高性能计算（这类应用需要先进的设备，并且这些设备的交付周期和验证时间更长），我们希望逻辑需求保持健康，继续拉动每个月光刻系统销售以及我们的其他产品增长。
存储领域：由于数据中心的健康需求以及对消费电子产品需求增长的期望，客户继续表示他们看到了复苏的迹象。支持者认为，随着存储厂利用率水平的不断提高，今年下半年的需求有望增加。我们的订单情况同样支持这一结论：在过去的三个季度里，存储在新订单中的占比不断增加。
基础安装业务：本季度的已安装机台管理销售额为8.87亿欧元。这使得上半年已安装的基础收入总额达到约17亿欧元。该季度的毛利率为48.2%，比第一季度显着提高，这主要是由于深紫外线的占比上升和EUV安装基础毛利率的提高。
我们仍然预计今年会有显著增长。上半年，我们实现了约17亿欧元的基础安装业务收入，我们预计今年下半年的基础安装业务水平将与上半年相似。
随着安装基础业务的增长，服务业务将继续扩大，并且随着这些系统在批量生产中使用更多的晶圆，EUV将以更有意义的方式为服务收入做出贡献。随着客户利用升级来增加容量并改善成像和套刻误差性能，我们预计会有大批量的升级。
深紫外线业务中：我们向客户交付了第一台NXT:1470。这是第一个基于NXT浸入式平台的干式NXT系统，在套刻误差控制和生产率方面都有了显着改善，可帮助我们的客户在引入新节点时应对因复杂性而日益增加的成本。每个Fab厂的NXT系统的较高产量也最大限度地提高了员工的生产能力，从而提高了客户的盈利能力。
我们的应用程序业务交付了第一代多光束检查系统eScan 1000，目标是用于5纳米及以下的节点。eScan 1000展示了成功的多波束操作，同时用9个波束扫描。与针对在线缺陷检测应用的单电子束检测系统相比，eScan 1000的吞吐量将提高600%。
运营费用：R&D费用为5.67亿欧元，SG&A费用为1.31亿欧元。根据第二季度的一次性税收评估，有效税率更高，为18.5%。第二季度的净收入为7.51亿欧元，占净销售额的22.6%，每股收益为1.79欧元。
资产负债表：ASML在第二季度支付了5.65亿欧元的股息或每股普通股1.35欧元，以及在2019年第四季度派发的中期股息每股普通股1.05欧元。因此，2019年的总股息为每股普通股2.40欧元。上季度末，我们的现金，现金等价物和短期投资为44亿欧元，比第一季度增加了3亿欧元。
订单情况：第二季度系统预订额为11亿欧元，其中包括来自3个EUV系统的4.61亿欧元。各个细分市场之间的订单接收量保持平衡，逻辑和存储均为50％。逻辑需求持续强劲，但在过去三个季度中，存储在预订中所占的比例有所增加。
中国大陆地区：对中国大陆地区的销售额继续增长，占本季度该系统收入的23％。这是由中国大陆地区逻辑和存储器客户的需求所致，同样我们预计今年中国地区的销售将会增长。
三季度预测：预计第三季度的净销售总额将在36-38亿欧元之间。我们预计第三季度已安装基础管理产品的销售额将约为8.5亿欧元，这是由于对现场升级的强劲需求和不断增长的服务收入以及EUV服务更加显著的贡献所致。
预计第三季度的毛利率将在47%-48%，比第二季度略低，这主要是由于深紫外线光刻机中的浸没式光刻机占比将下降。之前我们强调过一些可能对下半年的毛利率产生积极影响的产品组合，即主要是由Memory复苏驱动的，使得DeepUV产品中拥有更多的浸润式、更少的干式光刻。其次，EUV服务收入不断增长，再次，2050系统沉浸式光刻利润提高了。这些产品组合仍然存在，并为在第四季度实现50％的毛利率提供了机会。
第三季度的预计研发费用约为5.45亿欧元，SG&A预计约为1.4亿欧元。我们估计的2020年年度有效税率仍有望达到14%左右。
关于我们业务的投资，我们计划使CapEx达到先前预期的水平，以支持未来的技术研发和必须的产能扩展。关于营运资金，我们正在努力过渡。
公司有一段时间对EUV销售不收预收款且为客户提供延长付款的条件，这主要是考虑EUV产品的成熟度曲线，但实际上情况朝着我们要求EUV工具支付预付款的方向发展。这也反应EUV光刻机需要很长的产品导入时间，以及早期的供应链方面的投入。这意味着2020年的营运资金将暂时增加， 2021年大幅度降低这一水平。总的来说，我们预计今年下半年自由现金流将显着增加。加上整个生态系统的风险状况恢复到可接受的水平，我们将根据今年早些时候给出的计划（三年内60亿欧元），继续执行股票回购。
尽管全球疫情蔓延引发危机，但我们在今年年初定下的对于2020年的增长预期基本没有变化。因此我们预计今年的销售额和盈利能力将实现两位数的增长。
关于将于6月底生效的美国出口规定的变化，预计对我们业务的影响非常小。关于近期美国限制措施的影响，很难确定近期的动态会如何演变，但当你观察终端市场需求，增长的数字经济以及长期增长的驱动因素如5G、AI和高性能计算时，这些产品对半导体的需求将继续，并且这也会推动未来的创新。支持这些技术和创新所需要的晶圆和产品将在世界某个地方生产，肯定会需要先进的光刻技术
尽管宏观经济环境带来了一些挑战，但我们依然可以看到稳定的需求，和下半年强劲的经济增长。我们对2020年销售增长的预期与今年年初基本持平。数字经济的不断发展伴随长期驱动力诸如5G，人工智能和高性能计算，从长远来看都提供了巨大的机会。因此，我们的2025年增长计划仍然完好无损。
我们预计逻辑需求将继续保持健康，预计下半年存储将恢复，基础安装业务将继续保持上半年已经出现的显著增长，这意味着我们仍预计2020年的销售额和盈利能力将实现两位数的增长。
三、Q&A环节
1.基于存储需求不断增长的评述，以及你们仍然在Logic中看到高质量的订单。那在2021年，有没有一种情况，DUV和EUV数量都在增长或是一种更乐观的情况，或者你看到客户选择购买更多的EUV系统？
存储市场持续增长，这将对Deep UV浸没系统产生积极影响。因此，这实际上是逻辑方面的强劲需求以及存储市场的不断增强的问题。我可以看到这种情况。
一般来说，客户选择的EUV层越多，深紫外线层就越少。所以如果这仅仅是一个技术的转变，可能会看到深紫外和EUV的竞争，但是如果考虑存储和逻辑都有产能扩张，那么您可以看到两类光刻工艺的应用都会上升。
2.您认为在第三季度毛利率应该会下降一点，那么当我们进入第四季度及以后，EUV和公司利润率的变化趋势会怎么样？
我认为回答毛利率的最佳方法是给您提供三个季度之间的毛利率变化关系。从第一季度到第二季度，我们看到了毛利率的改善，我认为这是两个主要驱动因素：一是深紫外光刻机占比上升，二是IBM基础安装管理释放利润。因此，这些是从第一季度的毛利率上升到第二季度的48.2%的主要驱动力。
接着从第二季度到第三季度，您会看到毛利率略有下降，而这实际上是由于深紫外光刻机的占比变化，因为与第二季度相比，我们预计第三季度在这种紫外光中的浸入式系统更少。
从第三季度到第四季度，根据目前的估算，毛利率达到50%是可以实现的，主要驱动因素也是浸入式系统，但这次是积极的，因为在公司产品结构中会有更多的浸入式系统。其次，EUV服务的毛利率将再次成为重要的推动力。这两大驱动因素的共同结果，一方面降低了每台EUV机器的成本，另一方面，光刻机本身产能也在提升，也就是说晶圆产量也在增加，因此Fab厂单台EUV设备产生的收入也将增加。
以上就是对第三季度毛利率略有下降、第四季度毛利率提高至50%的预期的说明。
3.就您对现金流和资本分配的评述：在资本支出的某些方面，预计会在先前预期的水平上。但是就营运资金而言，您能否帮助我们进一步量化压力？显然今年上半年有大量营运资金流出，这种情况是否会持续到第三季度，也许到第四季度会开始好转？
如果看上半年，您会看到负的自由现金流，但在第二季度，它已经开始变为正数。如果看整个半年，这仍然是负的自由现金流。去年也是类似的情况。我们的预期是下半年，这种情况将会改变，而且在营运资金方面以及在产生自由现金流方面都会有显著的改善。
主要的原因一方面是，我们进入了要求支付EUV工具的定金的时期/阶段，但这需要时间，需要合同重新谈判。另一方面，基于旧合同，我们仍在执行一些机台装运，实际上是为给客户提供延期付款，这就是我们在应收帐款方面所处的情况。此外，公司各类产品的增长以及EUV的增长，意味着也会导致库存上升。
我不会给出具体数字，但是我的期望是在下半年，将看到自由现金流产生的显著恢复。大致与去年的情况类似，我们也看到了非常显著的复苏，可能还没有达到那个水平。
去年情况非常好。下半年就是我刚才提到的RAM和AR的简况，我预计今年下半年与去年相比会有所减少，但是仍然会有很大的改善，并且自由现金流也会重新变得健康。
4.您说一旦大量营运资金流出的情况好转，你就要计划股票回购。这是否是我们在今年第四季度可以预期到的情况，还是更可能出现在明年？你能给我们提供什么样的指标来指导这一点吗？
我们生态系统中的主要风险或多或少受到控制。我们相信我们可以再次开始执行股票回购，并且可能在今年，当然是在第四季度。而我们对自由现金流产生的预期将与该模型一致。事实上，在第四季度我们可以开始执行股票回购。
5.鉴于今年疫情爆发，您不仅停止了回购，而且当然也没有宣布从去年开始的中期股息。会在2021年恢复到那种阶段吗？
我们的中期股息是我们将在年底执行的中期股息。我们所说，我们于去年11月宣布了中期股息，我们说那是我们的计划。我们在11月进行中期股息分配，然后在4月份的年度股东大会之后进行最终股息分配。本质上讲这个模式我们重新开始考虑。因此，如果一切保持正常，那么你会看到这种模式在明年重演。11月为中期股息，4月为末期股息。
6.您认为到2021年光刻强度和产能会怎样变化？
当我们考虑2021年时，需要与六个月前的今年年初相比，看现在的情况。在我们客户的董事会，以及我们的同行和我们自己的董事会里，对GDP环境的不确定性已经上升了。这意味着依然有很高的不确定性，因为我们还没有得到一个很好的评估，也没有对2021年的情况进行量化评估。
7.从2019年开始，逻辑一直处于较高水平，存储在增加，但是您的客户对2021年的谈论程度如何？多大程度上可预见？
我们客户的创新和技术路线图创新仍在继续，逻辑、存储都是这样，并且都与EUV相关，尤其是对于DRAM以及7/5nm扩展。毫无疑问，这将继续下去。当我们再看2021年时，我们在这个时刻能看到什么？如您所知，我没有水晶球，所以我不知道从宏观经济角度看2021年会如何。但是当您采用2020年的业绩指引，与2019年相比逻辑持平，存储与2019年相比增长30%、基础安装业务增长20%达到了34亿欧元。
如果您将其作为2021年的目标数字，并观察我们如今在与客户讨论关于Logic和DRAM以及我们刚才就新冠肺炎提到的所有注意事项，我们仍然可以看到2021年的两位数销售数字增长。这是基于我们今天所看到的。
现在唯一的，也是与现在和六个月前最大的区别在于刚开始时的不确定性，今天的不确定性水平当然比六个月前有所不同。但这就是我们所处的位置，我认为我们可能会在接下来的两个季度里更加清晰。我们对今年第一季度新冠肺炎和GDP的影响可能有更好的看法。
我只是给了您一些指导，也希望您理解我们在目前这个时间点，很难对2021年进行量化估计。
8.从您的订单数量来看，3个价值约4.61亿欧元的EUV系统表明它是3400C和潜在的3600D EUV设备的组合，显然3600D的ASP价值更高，约为1.6亿欧元。我们应该如何考虑2021年的3400C和3600D的产品构成、ASP、预期45-50台EUV产能等等这些方面？
3台EUV是包括3400C和3600D机台。在预订的ASP中我们也看到了这种产品组合。但这只是未来的趋势。我认为2021年上半年可能会更倾向于Cs，但之后会转化为Ds，所以2021年下半年会看到Ds。我们计划今年发布第一个3600D，只有一个。因此2021年将是D版本升级的一年。公司正在准备45-50个EUV系统的产能。你会看到今年整个一年都在使用Cs的产能，下半年将涉及Ds，上半年是Cs和Ds的组合。
9.关于3600D，您有3个光刻机订单。您能否帮助我们理解逻辑与内存的客户结构并提供地域分布情况？
3个订单的客户分类当然是非常重要的。但是这3个订单并不一定平均分配，至少有1个订单来自存储客户。我们所有的关键存储客户现在都已经订购并发货了，同样也有一些逻辑订单。更重要的是，我认为当您考虑内存和DRAM时，我们所有存储客户都在我们的订单中。
10.在整个2021年，我们应如何看待毛利率的影响？
因为与毛利率有关，在D产品型号方面，就现在的ASP水平，我们预计毛利率为15％，可能会增加更多。今年我们的目标是EUV系统销售的毛利率超过40％。我认为如果达到50%的话，EUV毛利率肯定能够达到公司综合毛利率水平，这就是我们所期待的改进。
11.您考虑到2021年的毛利率时，我们应该如何思考新的2050浸入式和1470干式与D的关系？是我们应该考虑的50%还是因为新产品配置的出现，还有更多上升空间？
我认为1470和2050的结合将使我们的公司毛利率约1%上升。你应该这样看。
12.当您观察今年下半年的存储客户对光刻机的需求情况时，您如何在中国的DRAM和NAND之间进行分析，这会是下半年存储客户需求增长的驱动力吗？推动增长的因素是什么？
基本上中国大陆地区的晶圆厂都是我们的客户，包括Logic，NAND和DRAM客户。但DRAM客户也会推动下半年的需求。所以这是一个客户组合，并且分布非常广泛，但下半年重点将放在更传统的DRAM客户。
13.您提到过EUV服务的毛利率在下半年达到盈亏平衡。由于EUV现在可以盈利，那在2021服务毛利率是否会出现大的拐点？还是您认为它会逐渐变化？
这将是渐进的，因为我前面提到的两个驱动因素在收入和成本方面都将继续上升。它并不是开关切换那样立刻上升，这是一个循序渐进的过程，你将看到这一过程会持续到今年的每个季度。
14.您能谈谈EUV和内存吗？您今年将向DRAM交付几个EUV，作为明年45-52个光刻机产能的一部分，您将如何看待这个问题？以及您是否从客户那里听到关于对明年的DRAM发行版本中EUV层开发的消息？
明年的EUV业务还是以LOGIC为主。但是我们将交付第一批EUV系统给DRAM。第一个DRAM节点的层应用程序数量可能有限，可能只有一层。但是此后它会在节点中增长，并且就节点引入而言，DRAM路线图实际上已经大大加速了。
所以预计这个单层节点将在明年推出，但是到2022年和2023年，这一速度将会加快。而且我们可以在DRAM中建立多达五层的模型。但这不在我们明年将使用EUV的节点中。2021年大部分出货的EUV将用于Logic。
15.你怎么看待这个整体的利润率，EUV的毛利率趋向于深紫外水平？有望在2022年或2023年实现这一点吗？什么时候可以转型？
我认为您所说的时间节点都是正确的。2022年，2023年，以及当您谈论深紫外线毛利润时，我们必须认识到深紫外线内的不同工具之间存在一些差异。毛利率存在一些显着差异，但确实都是和D模型相关，然后显然在后续的某个阶段也会到达高毛利率水平。这就是新产品毛利率和UV毛利率之间将会接近或交叉的时间点，2022年和2023年的时间点估计是正确的。
16.本季度的预订额为11亿欧元，比您过去几个季度所看到的要低得多吗？
去年的第四季度和今年第一季度，我们看到了过去两个季度的订单创历史新高，这两个季度的订单金额合计56亿欧元。就是说，即使到2021年，加上已知的订单积压达100亿欧元，也已经有28个系统，计划在2021年为EUV出货，占我们产能的一半以上。请注意，我们正处在2020年中期。
因此，我认为这给了客户信心，他们已经获得了相当大一部分的产能增长。如果再加上今年第二季度的情况，疫情危机的全面程度和相关的不确定性打击了我们客户的董事会，但需求的确定性还是很高，在二季度特殊情况下肯定发挥了作用。
17.当我们进入下半年时，他们自己对宏观经济复苏的状态了解有限，这一事实的作用是什么？在哪方面收到了客户的意见？
在与客户的讨论中，我们非常有信心在整个今年余下的时间里继续预订EUV系统。到今年年底，当我们在六个月后召开第四季度电话会议时，我们对2021年的前景有很好的看法。
而且我认为可能订单数会满。完全预定的意思是完全根据即将发生的需求预定的。但是，公司正在准备产能为45-50台的EUV系统，以防我们的客户说，对2021的需求将会很高，我希望您制造这些系统。
18. 因此，产能的准备工作正在进行中，但是客户的最终需求将取决于我刚才所说的，与六个月前相比，不确定性的水平明显提高。但总的来说，只重申2020年，2021年，现在当您采用我们的业绩指引，可以说是2020年的指引，将这些数字相加后，基于今天所看到的，我们将在2021年实现两位数增长。我们应该如何考虑Logic、Foundry和DRAM之间的构成？您能给我们一些信号，例如任何大致的范围，来帮助我们了解我们在DRAM市场上的位置吗？
今年公司有少量EUV机台进入DRAM客户，但实际上LOGIC客户占80%至90%。
19.有关中国的问题。公平地假设中国将继续努力以提高其制造能力。不久之前，我们已经看到那里的一家公司在那里进行了大规模的融资。
因此，尽管面临压力，可能仍将打造产线的能力。我们需要遵守的新法律和法规，因此可能会更加困难。但是我看不到完整的步骤。我看到的是说我们对于法规有更多的抱怨，但我认为整个设备行业都在抱怨。
20.关于Logic/Foundry在下半年甚至2021年继续保持强劲增长的问题，您能否与我们分享一下你对Logic/Foundry为什么如此强劲和如此长期的看法？因为这次的周期似乎有点长。
我认为这与技术路线图正在加速有关。回到2018年电话会议期间，有一件事现在已经改变，那就是紫外线已经转危为安了。而且我认为，这为我们的客户提供了非常清晰的路线图以开始思考一种经济的方式来继续他们的路线图。
因此，您可以以合理成本进行收缩。这意味着我们看到客户的路线图正在加速，或者至他们的设计路线图中的至少两年节奏仍然存在。除此之外，借助这些新技术、新节点，他们可以提供平台和客户，而这些现在更多的是关于5G、人工智能、虚拟增强现实、汽车工业的电气化。客户群已经扩展到可以利用该技术的程度。公司在与客户的讨论中，确实看到ASML是如何对其中的新工艺节点进行讨论。我认为5nm、7nm节点可能和14nm节点、20nm节点一样大，因为事实上客户群已经扩展了很多，并且可以利用这些节点进行更经济的工艺过渡。
它基本上将提供很多价值。这就是为什么这个周期会持续如此长时间，但最好是说多个周期。与更大的客户群紧密联系，这似乎是一个大周期，但更多的周期是一个由更多客户驱动且基本上更短的创新周期，这就是今天正在发生的事情。我想这也要归功于EUV，我们现在可以使它更经济。
21.随着EUV在逻辑强劲的需求增加和存储需求的修复，很可能会在2021年达到2025年指引方针的下限吗？在近期内是否打算更新我们的信息？
在我所说的每部分内容中，您都必须参考指南的下限。25年指导的下限是多少？那可能就是您所指的。因此我不会定量。我只是给了您这个愿景，或是说关于我们如今所发生的一切，然后回到我们的2018年资本市场日。
它不是像2016年那样，EUV将起作用，并且指导方针实际上是由市场情况驱动的。我们是在谈论低端市场情况还是高端市场情况？这将影响对收入预期的判断。
如果您采用我们的2020年指引，我们如今看到了确确实实的机会。我认为假设是现实的。是的，我们看到在非传统的2021也实现了两位数的增长。当它达到2025年预设情景数字的下限时，这个数字到底会是多少，我不知道。我们拭目以待。
22.在新模型上，即EUV机器的模型D，在明年实现从C到D的升级路径，因为显然B到C的迁移不是那么明显。但是我想知道这与C到D迁移是否有些不同？
我认为C到D的可升级性符合许多客户真正要求的。它很昂贵。因此，在技术上是可行的，但我认为这将取决于经济可行性以及升级所需的时间，因为C工具将停止进行升级。这些都是非常昂贵的工具。因此我认为从技术上讲是可行的，但需要看能否在经济方面做到。所以目前仍不在计划中，但我们有具有技术能力。
23.在2020年的晶圆代工/逻辑方面，您说它相对平稳，因此这暗示着下半年的收入将同比下降至较低的两位数范围，尽管EUV收入创新高应该载入史册？你能谈谈推动这一趋势的因素吗？
我们不仅说了EUV，还说了Deep UV，这将是一个产品组合。当然，Logic的同比增长将保持平稳，EUV在下半年将高于上半年。但这并不能改变所有Logic的整体状况，我们很满意这个结果。如果您要查看我们的订单和发货方式，那就是LOGIC，它是深紫外线和超紫外线的结合我们也许会逐年持平。
如果您看一下材料，上半年LOGIC客户贡献收入是27亿欧元，因此如果您希望达到66亿欧元从而在logic方面保持平稳，则下半年Logic客户贡献的收入39亿欧元是必要的或预期的。这将导致下半年的增加，但这会是深紫外线和超紫外线的产品组合。
24.是否有更多有关下半年同比下降的信息？
可能是下半年，但是我的意思是，实际上需要查看该数据，我认为这与我无关，而是与客户需要这些系统的时机有关。我认为每季度可能会有很大的差异，而每半年可能会有巨大差异。我为我们正在逐年考核，那是更长的时期。由于巨大变化（大型工具，客户发货模式每季度都会变化），因此不应使这些时期太短，否则得出任何结论都是有点危险的。
中银机械杨绍辉13818799289陶波15221585539等
英文原文来自：seekingalpha、ASML主页
Peter Wennink
Thank you, Skip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you forjoining us for our second quarter 2020 results conference call. First of all, Ihope all of you and your families are healthy and safe. And before we start ournormal quarterly results review, I would like to provide you a brief update onthe COVID-19 situation.
I think thanks to the commitment, engagement, andcreativity of our people. We managed the quarter very well, and this translatedinto growth in both revenue and profitability in the quarter, and Roger will ofcourse provide some more details on those results.
Although, we experienced some challenges early in thequarter around supply delays and increased absenteeism, we did not encounterany new disruptions due to COVID-19. We continue to operate with specialmeasures in place around isolation and contamination protocols to ensure thesafety of our employees and to reduce risk of operational disruption. Eventhough this created some initial inefficiencies and production delays,operations capabilities are largely back to normal.
Regarding transportation, logistics, and customersupport, we were able to continue to secure flights to meet customer shipmentrequirements, and we have managed to support our customers in this challengingenvironment.
We have significantly increased the capability of ourteams in the field to more independently support the customer and continue todeploy more novel, remote diagnostics and augmented reality support. Majorityof this remote technology has accelerated throughout this COVID period, and weexpect to deploy even more of this in the future.
In summary, we have been able to successfully navigatethrough the current environment, and our operations capabilities are largelyback to normal. But as COVID-19 is not yet behind us, we will remain vigilantto ensure the safety of our employees, while providing the best possiblecustomer support. And thanks again to our people and everyone in our supplychain who did an outstanding job servicing our customers during thesechallenging times.
Now, I would like to turn to our normal quarterly resultsprocess, and before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like toprovide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter as well asprovide our view on the coming quarters.
Roger will start with a review of our Q2 financialperformance with added comments on our short-term outlook, and I will completethe introduction with some additional comments on the current businessenvironment and our future business outlook.
Roger, if you will?
Roger Dassen
Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone. I will first reviewthe second quarter financial results and then provide guidance on the thirdquarter of 2020. Net sales came in at €3.3 billion. We executed quite wellconsidering the risks in the COVID-19 environment, translating to strong growthof more than 35% over Q1.
We shipped nine EUV systems and recognized revenue onseven systems in the quarter. Taking into account, the additional approximately€260 million of revenue from the net two systems we didn't recognize in Q2,this would hypothetically have resulted in revenue of around €3.6 billion and agrowth of around 50%.
Similar to Q1, some EUV systems were expedited forshipment without factory acceptance testing in Q2. We expect to recognizerevenue on these systems at site acceptance in the second half of the year. Weshipped nine EUV systems in the quarter with four systems not receiving factoryacceptance testing, meaning five systems recognized revenue upon shipment.
For the two systems that shipped in Q1, but did notreceive factory acceptance testing before shipment, we were able to completecustomer site acceptance tests and recognize revenue this quarter, bringing thetotal to seven EUV revenue systems in Q2.
Net system sales of €2.4 billion was again more weightedtowards Logic at 62% with the remaining 38% from Memory. Although, Logicremains very strong, Memory has been growing over the last three quarters as apercentage of system sales.
Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came inat €887 million. This brings the total of installed base revenue in the firsthalf to around €1.7 billion. Gross margin for the quarter was 48.2%, asignificant improvement over Q1, primarily due to Deep UV mix and animprovement of the EUV installed base gross margin.
On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at €567million and SG&A expenses came in at €131 million. The effective tax ratewas higher, 18.5% based on a one-off tax assessment recorded in Q2. Net incomein Q2 was €751 million, representing 22.6% of net sales and resulting in an EPSof €1.79.
Turning to the balance sheet. ASML paid €565 million individend or €1.35 per ordinary share in Q2 together with the interim dividendof €1.05 per ordinary share paid in Q4 2019. This resulted in a total dividendfor 2019 of €2.40 per ordinary share. We ended last quarter with cash, cashequivalents, and short-term investments at a level of €4.4 billion, which is€300 million higher than Q1.
Moving to the order book. Q2 system bookings came in at€1.1 billion, including €461 million from three EUV systems. Order intake wasbalanced between market segments with both Logic and Memory at 50%. Logicdemand continues to be strong, but Memory increasing as a percentage of bookingsover the past three quarters.
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations forthe third quarter of 2020. We expect Q3 total net sales of between €3.6 billionand €3.8 billion. We expect our Q3 Installed Base Management sales to be around€850 million, which is driven by strong demand for field upgrades and growingservice revenue with a more meaningful contribution from EUV service.
Gross margin for Q3 is expected to be between 47% and48%, which is a little below Q2, primarily due to Deep UV mix with fewerimmersion systems. We have previously highlighted a number of levers that couldpositively impact gross margins in the second half. These levers being a richermix of Deep UV, more immersion less dry, primarily driven by the Memory recovery.
Second, growing EUV service revenue, and third, improvedimmersion margins from our 2050 system. These levers remain and provide theopportunity to achieve 50% gross margin in Q4. The expected R&D expensesfor Q3 are around €545 million, and SG&A is expected to come in around €140million. Our estimated 2020 annualized effective tax rate is still expected tobe around 14%.
Finally, I would like to talk about capital allocationand working capital. Our capital allocation policy remains unchanged. In the nextfew years, we expect to generate a significant amount of free cash flow. Cashthat will not be required to support the future growth of our business will bereturned to our shareholders in a combination of growing dividends and sharebuybacks.
Regarding investments in our business, we plan to haveCapEx at levels previously communicated in support of future technology andrequired expansions. Regarding working capital, we are working our way througha transition period.
We come from a period where contracts did not includedown payments and actually provided extended payment terms for customers, giventhe maturity curve that our EUV tools run and are moving into a direction wherewe ask for down payments of EUV tools, reflecting the long lead times and earlysupply chain commitments that ASML has to enter into.
This means a temporarily higher level of working capitalin 2020 with a plan to significantly reduce this level in 2021. All-in-all, weexpect to see a significant increase in the generation of free cash flow in thecourse of the second half of this year. Once this occurs and the risk profilefor our entire ecosystem has returned to acceptable levels, then we will resumethe execution of share buyback in line with the plans that we have communicatedearlier this year, €6 billion over three years.
With that, I would like to turn the call back over toPeter.
Peter Wennink
Thank you, Roger. As Roger highlighted, we had a strongquarter with over 35% growth in revenue and improved profitability. In this challengingmacroeconomic environment, we saw a growth in both Logic and Memory markets,which is a reflection of our customers drive to innovate and continue to investin future technology nodes.
With significant work-from-home and remote learningactivities continuing, segments such as data center and communicationinfrastructure continued to be strong. Demand for consumer-related electronics,for example, smartphones, maybe under some near-term stress due to the economicimpact from COVID. And our customers indicated they see continued strength inend markets, requiring advanced nodes, and this is reflected in our stabledemand.
For 2020, our growth expectations that we indicated atthe start of the year are largely unchanged, despite the disruptions caused bythe worldwide COVID induce crisis. We therefore expect a year of double-digitgrowth in sales and profitability.
In Logic, customers continue to ramp advanced technologynodes, seven and five nanometers. In support of the buildup of the digitalinfrastructure, driving end market applications, such as 5G, AI andhigh-performance compute requiring leading-edge equipment, which have longerlead times and qualification schedules. We expect Logic demand to remainhealthy, which continues to drive the monthly review systems as well as ourother products.
In Memory, customers are continuing to indicate that theyare seeing signs of recovery, driven by healthy demand in data centers andexpectations of improved demand in consumer electronics. Increasing the talk ofutilization levels, supporters view, and with this continued trend in mind,it's understandable that we see additional demand in the second half of theyear. This is supported in our bookings with Memory increasing as a percentageof bookings over the past three quarters.
Sales to China continue to grow and accounted for 23% ofour system's revenue this quarter. This is driven by demand from both Logic andMemory customers in China and we expect sales growth from the China region thisyear.
Regarding changes to the U.S. export rules that went intoeffect at the end of June, we expect minimal impact to our business. Regardingthe impact of recent U.S. restrictions, it's difficult to determine hownear-term dynamics will evolve, but when you look at the end market demand andthe growing digital economy with secular growth drivers like 5G, AI andhigh-performance compute, the demand for semiconductors for these products willcontinue and it will fuel future innovations. Wafers and products to support thistechnology and innovation will be produced somewhere in the world, and it willcertainly require advanced lithography.
On our installed base business, we still expectsignificant growth this year. First half of the year, we realized revenue ofaround €1.7 billion, and we expect a similar level of business in the secondhalf of the year.
Services business will continue to scale as our installedbase grows and EUV will contribute in a more meaningful way to service revenueas these systems run more wafers in volume manufacturing. We expect significantamounts for upgrades as customers utilize upgrades to increase capacity andimprove imaging and overlay performance.
On the EUV, this technology has now entered the realm ofhigh volume manufacturing and is an integral part of our core operationalactivities as evidenced by the large EUV share of our sales in Q2.
We have successfully implemented the improvements to themodular vessel, we discussed last quarter, and this vessel is designed todeliver higher availability. With nine shipments this quarter, we have shipped13 systems in the first half of the year, and as COVID-related transportationand support risks are now lower, we plan to resume the normal qualificationprocess, including factory acceptance testing, meaning we expect to recognizerevenue shipments on all systems in Q3.
We plan to be back on track with our cycle time reductionplan in Q3. I feel comfortable about our capacity to produce and shipdouble-digit numbers of EUV systems per quarter. We are therefore stilltargeting revenue of around €4.5 billion on 35 systems this year.
On the EUV margins, after more than a decade ofinvestments in EUV, we are well on track to improve profitability in bothsystems and service. EUV service margins are expected to breakeven in thesecond half of the year and the EUV system gross margin is on track to meet orexceed the 40% target for the year.
We are still planning at capacity of 45 to 50 systemsnext year. They just planned within our existing factory footprint by reducingcycle time in our factory to around 20 weeks by the end of this year, currentlyhave a backlog of 54 systems with 28 system orders for 2021 delivery, coveringover half of this capacity, and we expect orders to continue in the second halfof the year in support of the 2021 demand.
Understandably, customers are currently reviewing howCOVID will impact the global economy, and as we proceed through the second halfof this year, we will have a better view of how this ultimately translates to thetechnology ramp plans next year.
In our Deep UV business, we shipped the first NXT:1470 toa customer. This is the first dry NXT system, building on the NXT immersionplatform, with significant improvements in matched machine overlay andproductivity, helping our customers to deal with the increasing cost ofcomplexity when introducing new nodes. The higher output per fab area from anNXT system also maximizes staff capacity and therefore customer profitability.
Our Applications business shipped the first-generationmultibeam inspection system, eScan 1000, targeted for five nanometer nodes andbeyond. The eScan 1000 demonstrated successful multibeam operation,simultaneously scanning with nine beams. The eScan 1000 will increasethroughput up to 600% compared to the single e-beam inspection systems targetedfor inline defect inspection applications.
In summary, although the macroeconomic environmentprovides some challenges, we see stable demand and a strong second half. Our2020 sales growth expectations are largely unchanged from the beginning of theyear.
We expect Logic demand to continue to be healthy with anexpected Memory recovery in the second half. And we expect the continuation ofthe significant growth in our installed base business has already seen in thefirst half of the year, meaning we still expect double-digit growth in salesand profitability in 2020.
Although, we, of course, do not yet know the full impactof COVID on global GDP and how this will translate to end market demands in thecoming year, the COVID crisis told us that the expanding digital economy withsecular drivers such as 5G, AI and high-performance compute provide significantopportunities over the long-term. Our 2025 growth trajectory is therefore stillvery much intact.
With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.
Skip Miller
Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will inspect youmomentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Before I hand, I'd like toask you that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-upif necessary. This will allow us to get to as many callers as possible.
Now operator, can we have your final instructions, andthen the first question, please.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. At this time, we will begin thequestion-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comesfrom Mr. Mitch Steves. Please state your company name followed by yourquestion.
Mitchell Steves
Yes. Thanks for taking my question. Mitch Steves from RBCCapital Markets. So I'm just going to ask two upfront. The first one is justthe commentary about Memory demand being – coming in stronger, and you guys arestill seeing high-quality bookings in Logic. So first question is basically for2021, is there a scenario where you could actually see growth in both DUV andEUV units and kind of a more bullish scenario or are you seeing customers kindof opt to just buy more EUV systems?
And then secondly, I just wanted to double-click on kindof the gross margin comment. I think that was supposed to be up a little bitmore in Q3, so what is kind of the trajectory in both EUV and the corporatemargin as we get to Q4 and beyond?
Peter Wennink
Yes. I think, is your question directed for 2021? Youjust started your question with Memory demand picking up and strong and healthyLogic. And then the question for 2021 is directed at both the combined businessof Memory and Logic or at one of those, just as an explanation.
Mitchell Steves
No, so same for – so total DUV and – Deep UV and total EUVunits, is there a scenario where both of those are up due to high demand ordoes it have to be kind of one versus the other?
Peter Wennink
No, I think if you see a continued uptick of the Memorymarket, which will have a positive effect on the Deep UV immersion systems, youcould see both of them, yes. So it's really a matter of strong demandcontinuing in Logic and a continued strengthening of the Memory market. I couldsee that happening.
But in general, of course, the more EUV layers that arechosen by our customers will take away Deep UV layers. So you could argue ifthere is – and if it's only a technology transition, you would probably see acannibalization of Deep UV versus EUV, but if you have a capacity ramp, then --both in Memory and you see the capacity ramp in Logic continuing, then youcould see both numbers up.
Roger Dassen
Let me take the question on gross margin, and may be thebest way to do it is, just give you the bridge for – between the threequarters. So moving from Q1 to Q2, the improvement that we saw in gross margin,two main drivers, I would say. One is the Deep UV mix, and secondly IBMinstalled base management margin. So, those are the primary drivers to get youfrom the gross margin we had in Q1 up to the 48.2% that we recognized in Q2.
So then from Q2 to Q3, you see a slight deterioration onthe gross margin and that really is down to the mix in Deep UV, where we expectto have less immersion systems in that mix in Q3 in comparison to Q2. And thengoing from Q3 to Q4, where again as we said, we think the 50% up is achievablein the current plans that we see. Main drivers there, again immersion, but thistime positively, so that would be more immersion in the mix.
And secondly, an important driver there again would beEUV service gross margin. The result of two things on the one hand bringingdown the cost per EUV machine, and on the other hand, as Peter alluded to it,the fact that these tools are getting into high volume manufacturing, whichmeans that also the wafer output is increasing as well, and as a result of thatthe revenue will increase as well. So that in essence gives you the bridgesover the three quarters and the basis for the potential to get to 50% up in Q4.
Mitchell Steves
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question is from Mr. Andrew Gardiner. Pleasestate your company name and ask your question.
Andrew Gardiner
Thanks very much. Andrew Gardiner from Barclays. Roger,one for you, if I could, just on your comments on the cash flow and capitalallocation. You said for some of the points in CapEx in particular that youexpected it at previously communicated levels. So that's clear.
But in terms of working capital, can you help sort ofquantify the pressure a bit more for us? Clearly there was significant workingcapital outflow during the first half of the year. Is that expected to continueinto third quarter, perhaps start to improve by fourth quarter, just a bit ofhelp around that would be useful? And also the point you made about, once thissort of transition is clear, then you would plan to return to the sharebuyback. Is that something we could expect by the fourth quarter of this yearor is it more likely to be into next year? And again, is there any metrics youcan give us that could help guide that? Thank you.
Roger Dassen
Yes. Sure, Andrew. Happy to do that. So you’re right. Ifyou look at the first half, you would look at a negative free cash flow, youwould actually see that in the second quarter, it already started to becomepositive. If you look at the full half year, it would be a negative free cashflow.
Not unlike, I should add what we saw in last year, andlast year you saw a similar pattern. The expectation is that in the secondhalf, we will – that will change, and there will be a significant improvementin working – in both the working capital, but also in the free cash flowgeneration.
And the main reasons are the reasons that I pointed outin the initial comments. So it's associated with the fact that on the one hand,we are entering into a period where we are actually asking down payments on EUVtools, but that takes time and that takes contractual renegotiations, so that'sone element.
And the second element is that based on the old contractsand the – old contracts on the base of which we're still executing quite someshipments, that was actually provided for extended payments to customers, sothat's the situation that we find ourselves in on the let's say the accountsreceivable side.
Secondly, as you will appreciate with the ramp that we’redoing and with the increase that we're seeing in EUV, obviously that also meansthat's from an inventory perspective that leads to an uptick as well. So thoseare the two main dynamics why it is the way it is.
So my expectation is, and I won't give specific numbers,but my expectation is that in the – you will see a significant recovery of thefree cash flow generation in the second half. More or less along the lines ofwhat we saw last year, we also saw a very significant recovery maybe not at thatlevel.
Last year was pretty spectacular. The way it picked up inthe second half given the RAM profile and given the AR profile that I justtalked about. I expect a little less in the second half of this year incomparison to last year, but nonetheless a very significant improvement. Andonce we see that, and once we see that that free cash flow generation starts tobecome healthy again.
And we also conclude that the main risks in our ecosystemare more or less under control. At that point in time, we do believe that – andwe can start executing on share buyback again, and that could be this year.That could definitely be in Q4. And our expectations as it relates to the freecash flow generation would be in line with that model. That indeed, in Q4, we canstart generating and can start executing on share buyback again.
Andrew Gardiner
Okay. Thank you. And just a quick follow-up. I mean it’sa fairly minor point. Given the COVID-19 issues this year, not only did youstop the buyback, but of course, you didn't declare an interim dividend either,which you had started with last year. Would the intent be to return to thatsort of phasing in 2021?
Roger Dassen
No, just to be clear. So the interim dividend that we dois an interim dividend that we would do in the – at the end of the year. Sowhat we said, we declared an interim dividend in November of last year and wesaid that that was the plan that we had. So it's not like – so we had aninterim dividend in November then we had the final dividend in April rightafter the AGM. And that's the pattern that in essence we are looking at again.So if everything remains normal, then you would see that pattern repeated inthe next year. So November, interim dividends and final dividend in April.
Andrew Gardiner
Okay. Thank you. That's clear.
Operator
Next question is from Mr. Amit Harchandani. Please stateyour company name followed by your question.
Amit Harchandani
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Amit Harchandanifrom Citi, and thanks for letting me on. A question and a follow-up, if I may.So my question relates to 2021please. Peter and Roger, I would appreciate your thoughts in terms of helpingus understand how do you think it all shakes up in terms of litho intensity andcapacity going into 2021? Logic has been on an elevated level from 2019. Memoryis picking up, but to what extent are your customers talking about 2021? Andwhat's the level of visibility there, please? That would be my first question.And I have a clarification follow-up. Thank you.
Peter Wennink
Yes. I think that's a very good question. I think when wethink about 2021, and we look at the situation today as compared to let's saysix months ago at the beginning of the year. I mean, it may not be a surprisethat in the boardrooms of our customers, but also of our peers and ourselves,the level of uncertainty as to the GDP environment and – has, of course, goneup. So I mean, there's high level of uncertainty on what that could meanbecause we haven't really got a very good assessment and as a quantifiableassessment on what 2021 means. And I hope you understand.
Now having said that, as also said in my prepared remarksthat the innovation and the roadmap innovation of our customers are stillcontinuing, which is true for Logic and it's true for Memory. And as it relatesto EUVs, particularly for DRAM and for the seven and the five nanometerexpansions.
That will continue, there's no doubt in our minds. Nowwhen we then look at 2021, what can we see at this moment in time? And as youknow, I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know how 2021 is going to lookfrom a macroeconomic point of view. But when you take our 2020 guidance, if youwant to call it this way, we said Logic as compared to 2019, flat, Memory ascompared to 2019, 30% up, installed base, 20% up to a level of €3.4 billion.
You take those numbers, you come to a number. And if youtake that as a 2021 targeted number and look at where we are today in thediscussions with our customers, on Logic, and on DRAM and, of course, with allthe caveats as I just mentioned on the COVID-19. We could still seedouble-digit sales number growth in 2021. That's based on what we see today.
Now the only – the biggest difference with now and sixmonths ago has to do with what I started off with, where the level ofuncertainty is, of course, different today than it was six months ago. But thisis where we are, and I think we will probably get some more clarity over thenext two quarters. Towards the end of the year, we'll probably get a betterview on what this all means and we have the first quarters of the COVID-19 andGDP impact behind us.
Now I hope, Amit, I just gave you a little bit ofguidance, and I also hope that you understand that we – at this moment in time,it's very difficult to be quantitative on 2021.
Amit Harchandani
Understood, Peter. That's helpful. And secondly, as aclarification, if I may. Looking at your bookings number, three EUV systems forabout €461 million suggests it was a mix of 3400C and potentially 3600D toolsand clearly a higher ASP of around €160 million for 3600D.
And as we look towards 2021, are you in a position to atleast give us some help in terms of how we should think of the mix of shipmentof 3400C and D and what that means for ASP and what that would mean for the 45to 50 capacity that we are talking about? Thank you.
Peter Wennink
Yes. It will be a mix of 3400Cs and 3600Ds. So yes, we’veseen this mix also in the ASP of the bookings, I mean as you point it out. Butit's just that trend going forward. I think the first half of 2021 willprobably be more skewed towards the Cs, but then it will translate into the Ds,so the second half of the year, you will see Ds. And we're going to ship thefirst, let's say, plan to ship the first 3600D this year. There’s only one. Sothat will be a year of ramp of the D version in 2021.
And like I said in my prepared remarks, we are preparingthe capacity as we talked about to be between 45 and 50 systems. And yes, youwill see that transition using that capacity from Cs throughout the year, likeI said, second half will involve the Ds and in the first half of the year amix.
Amit Harchandani
Thank you very much, Peter. Appreciated.
Operator
Next question comes from Mr. C.J. Muse. Please state yourcompany name followed by your question.
Christopher Muse
Yes. Evercore ISI. Thank you for taking the question. Iguess, first question to follow-up on the last one, with the 3600D, I guessfirst you had three tool orders. Can you help us understand the mix betweenLogic and Memory, and also provide geography? And then as part of the derampingthroughout 2021, how should we think about the gross margin implications?
Peter Wennink
Okay. I'll give the last part to Roger. Yes, the level ofgranularity with the three orders is of course – it could be significant. Butthree orders were evenly spread – no evenly spread, it was – there were atleast one for a Memory customer, which is – I would now say that all our keyMemory customers have now EUV ordered and shipped, which is good. And there wasalso some Logic orders there, but it was a mix. But more importantly, I thinkwhen you think about memory and DRAM, we now have all our Memory customers inour order book.
Roger Dassen
And C.J. as it relates to gross margin, on the D, interms of ASP, we're looking at 15%, maybe a little bit more increase in ASP. Asyou know this year what we're looking at is over 40% on EUV gross margin onsystem sales. I think with 50% up, we should definitely be able to get to EUVgross margin at the level of the corporate gross margin. That's what we'relooking at. So that's the kind of improvement that we're eyeing for them.
Christopher Muse
That's very helpful. If I could just sneak in anothergross margin question. Curious how we should be thinking about the new 2050immersion and the 1470 dry in context with the D as you think about grossmargins into 2021. Is 50 what we should be thinking about or because of the newproduct profiling coming in, is there more upside?
Roger Dassen
I think the combination of the 1470 and the 2050 shouldgive us approximately 1% uptick in corporate gross margin. That's the way youshould look at that.
Christopher Muse
Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Mr. Krish Sankar. Please stateyour company name followed by your question.
Krish Sankar
Hi. It's Krish from Cowen. Thanks for taking my question.Two of them. First one, Peter, when you look into the second half with theMemory strength continuing, how do you parse it between China, DRAM and NAND,which is driving the incremental strength in Memory in the second half? Andthen, I have a follow-up.
Peter Wennink
The Memory strength – is your question, Krish, just tomake sure that I understand it clearly. The Memory strength in the second half,are you asking how much of that has to do with China?
Krish Sankar
I'm just trying to figure out what is driving the growth.Is it China? Is it DRAM? How do you categorize between DRAM and NAND?
Peter Wennink
Yes. I think, it is basically all of that, it's ourChinese customers, which is a mix of Logic and NAND and DRAM customers. Butit's also the traditional DRAM customers that are driving the demand in thesecond half. So it's a mix and it's pretty well spread, but if you would say,where is the emphasis, the emphasis will be on the – I would say the moretraditional DRAM customers in the second half.
Krish Sankar
Got it. That's very helpful. And then a follow-up forRoger. You mentioned about the EUV services gross margin hitting breakeven inthe second half. So when you look into 2021, would there be a big inflection inthe services gross margins because EUV is now profitable? Or do you think it'sgoing to be more gradual?
Roger Dassen
Sorry, would it be what?
Peter Wennink
More gradual.
Roger Dassen
It will be gradual and because both drivers that Imentioned before, both on the revenue side and on the cost side that willcontinue to ramp. So it's not like a flip of the switch that it's going up.This is a gradual process that you will see continue throughout the year, thequarters to come.
Krish Sankar
Thank you very much.
Operator
Next question is from Mr. Sandeep Deshpande. Please stateyour company name followed by your question.
Sandeep Deshpande
Yes. Hi. JPMorgan. Can you talk about EUV and Memory? Imean, clearly you had said earlier in year, you're shipping a couple of EUV toDRAM this year. How you see that as part of that 45 to 52 tools next year andwhat you're hearing from your customers in terms of the development of EUVlayers in the DRAM releases of next year? And I have one quick follow-upquestion.
Peter Wennink
Yes. I think, the EUV business for next year will bepredominantly Logic. But yes, we will ship the first EUV systems to DRAM. Itwill be a limited number of – there will be – the layer application for thefirst DRAM node for the first EUV application in the DRAM node will be limited,just probably one layer. But it will grow in the nodes thereafter and the DRAMroadmap in terms of node introduction has actually accelerated so much.
So I would expect that the introduction of this one layernode will happen next year. But in 2022 and 2023 that will accelerate. And Ithink we have models up to potentially five layers in DRAM. But that's not inthe node for which we'll use EUV next year. The majority of our shipments in2021 on the EUV will be for Logic.
Sandeep Deshpande
Understood. And then Roger, how are you looking at thiswhole – margin, gross margin in EUV trending toward the Deep UV level and Imean, are you on track to do this in 2022 or 2023? And I mean you've talkedabout this in your Analyst Day in the past. So when does that crossover withthat?
Peter Wennink
I think that that's indeed the right timeframe thatyou're referencing. So and by the way, when you – 2022, 2023, and by the way,when you talk about Deep UV gross margins, of course, we have to recognize thatwithin Deep UV a bit between different tools. There are some significantdifferences in the – in gross margin, but indeed with the D model, and thenobviously at some stage getting to its successor as well. That's the point intime where the lines between, let's say emerging gross margin and UV grossmargin need to get close or cross. And I think the 2022 and 2023 timeframesthat the right way to look at that.
Sandeep Deshpande
Thank you.
Operator
Next question is from Mr. Achal Sultania. Please state yourcompany name followed by a question.
Achal Sultania
Hi. Good afternoon. It's Credit Suisse. Question on thebookings again. Obviously, the bookings number is a €1.1 billion for thisquarter, much lower than what you've seen over the last few quarters?
I know you already have a large order backlog. I thinkyou mentioned about €10 billion in your interview this morning. So I guess howmuch of – this is a function of your customers basically saying, okay, let'shold on, we already have a lot of orders, backlog with you. Let's wait forthose orders to be fulfilled.
And how much did the function of the fact that theythemselves have limited visibility on what the shape of recovery will be on themacro side as we go into the back half of the year? Can you just help usunderstand like, what are you hearing from your customers on that front?
Peter Wennink
I think you just mentioned it. I mean, I can repeat yourquestion as an answer in the sense that you just touched on all of it. Yes. Wehad seen a fight for the last two quarters as Q1 and Q4 of last year, but €5.6billion in total over those two quarters. That is – and basically adding up toan order backlog of €10 billion with know, even for 2021, already 28 systems,slated for 2021 shipment for EUV, which is more than half of our productioncapacity. And mind you we're in the middle of 2020.
So I think that of course it gives the customer theconfidence that they have secured a significant part of their capacity ramp. Ifyou add to that that in Q2 this year of course, the full extent of the COVIDcrisis and the uncertainty associated hit the boardrooms of our customers thatalso said, listen, yes, there is a higher level of certainty. I think that hasdefinitely played in this particular situation.
Having said that I think in the discussion with ourcustomers, we are very confident that we will keep booking EUV systemsthroughout the remainder of the year. So and I would be – I think by the end ofthe year, when we do our Q4 conference call in six months from now, we have avery good view on what 2021 is going to look like.
And I think will probably be fully booked. And what thatfully booked means is fully booked on the demand of what that ever is going tobe. But we're preparing, like I said, four hour, uh, capacity, 45 to 50 systemsjust in case, our customers come back and said, the demand for 2021 is going tobe that high and I want you to make those systems.
So the preparations for the capacity are ongoing, but theultimate demands of customers will be is a function of what I just said, andthat level of uncertainty has clearly gone up as compared to six months ago,what it's finally going to be. But all-in-all, and only repeat 2020, 2021, nowwhen you take our – let's say guidance, you could say it for 2020, you add upthose numbers, we've see a real, real opportunity based on what you see todayof again, a double digit growth in 2021?
Achal Sultania
Right. Okay. That's helpful. And maybe a follow-up, Iguess, when we look at the 35 EUV shipment number or target that you have forthis year. How should we think about the mix between a Logic, Foundry and DRAM?Can you give us some color, like any rough ranges, just to help us understandwhere we are in the adoption curve for DRAM market?
Peter Wennink
The adoption growth for DRAM where do we need to look atnext year? I mean this year, these are the first few systems into the DRAMcustomer base, and it's really predominantly 80% to 90%. It's just Logic.
Achal Sultania
Okay. That's all. Well thanks a lot, Peter.
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